« May 2008 | Main | July 2008 »

June 30, 2008

San Diego Mortgage Rates Report: June 30, 2008

Mortgage rates in San Diego for June 30, 2008.  Loan amounts up to $417,000:

3/1 ARM              5.250%
5/1 ARM              5.500%
7/1 ARM              5.750%
10/1 ARM            5.875% 

All rates offered to the borrower with 1 point cost.  Rate quotes assume a purchase transaction with a 20% down payment, 720 credit score, and full income qualification.  Rates are subject to fluctuation.  Custom rate quotes and fixed rate mortgages are available by calling at the number below..

SAN DIEGO MORTGAGE RATE TREND:

Next 7 days:         Slightly Lower

Next 30 days:     Slightly Higher

Next 3 months:  Higher

Brian Brady
(858)-777-9751

Apply for a loan online

June 27, 2008

San Diego Mortgage Rates Report: June 27, 2008

Mortgage rates in San Diego for June 27, 2008.  Loan amounts up to $417,000:

3/1 ARM              5.125%
5/1 ARM              5.500%
7/1 ARM              5.625%
10/1 ARM            5.875% 

All rates offered to the borrower with 1 point cost.  Rate quotes assume a 20% down payment, 720 credit score, and full income qualification.  Rates are subject to fluctuation.

Brian Brady
(858)-777-9751

Apply for a loan online

June 25, 2008

San Diego Mortgage Rates Report: June 25, 2008

No recommendation until tomorrow.  All eyes are on the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee today.  At 2:15PM (EDT), 11:15 (PDT), they will release their interest rate decision and statement.  The fixed income securities market believe there is a 43% chance that the Fed will RAISE rates, to stifle inflation, in August and that there is a 61% chance that the hike will come in November.

The eyes will be on the Fed's commentary, though:

"We expect the Fed to keep the funds rate at 2% today but to shift to a more hawkish statement by placing more emphasis on inflation over growth risks," strategists at Credit Suisse wrote in a research report. "The Fed will likely use this meeting as an opportunity to set the stage for a potential rate rise in August."

If the Fed signals that rates could rise as early as August, expect San Diego mortgage rates to jump .25% higher, from today's 6.375% 30 year fixed rate, over the next few weeks.  If the Fed signals rate hikes are "possible" as a way to fight inflation, expect San Diego mortgage rates to stay level through in July (6.25% to 6.5%).  Finally, if the Fed shifts back to its anti-recessionary talk, we could see rates drop down to 6%.

As you can see, there are a lot of "ifs".  This is why today's Fed commentary is all important.  The Fed's ambiguity has traders convinced that higher rates are a foregone conclusion.  Here's the silver lining hidden in this dark cloud; mortgage rates are equal to what they were in July, 2007The Fed Funds rate was at 5.25%, then. Today, the Fed funds rate is at 2.25%.  What that means is that mortgage rates SHOULD be able to withstand some 5-6 rate hikes and stay under 7%.

Alas, markets are discounting mechanisms.  We still think there is a lot of risk to higher mortgage rates until the commodities bubble bursts.

June 20, 2008

No Fee Mortgage Plus = No Real Bargain

I went in to my bank today to make a deposit.  I noticed their advertisement for their "No Fee Plus Mortgage".  After reading the terms and conditions of the offering, I realized that it was no great bargain but a pretty smart marketing ploy.  Here's what I saw (the date was partially  cut off but it was today):

Bofa_6_20_2




















This means that the bank is absorbing some $3,500 in costs, on a $320,000 loan but charging a discount fee of 1.312 % (or in this case, some $4198.40).  So, the total charges for the bank's "no fee mortgage plus", at 6.5%, would be $4,198.  I would offer the same loan terms for the $3,500 in costs.

Advantage:  Brady by about $700 for the 30 year fixed rate loan at 6.5%.

On the 5/1 ARM example, at $320,000,  I would charge the $3,500 in fees plus 1.25% for a discount fee, totaling $7,500 in costs.  The bank offering absorbs the $3,500 in costs but charges the borrower a discount fee of 2.228 % or $7296.

Advantage:  The Bank by about $300 for the 5/1 ARM at 5.5 %.

It's just prestidigitation and the mortgage industry is famous for it.  Banks, brokers, we all go to the same place for funding; Wall Street.

June 19, 2008

San Diego Mortgage Rates Report: June 19, 2008

We're still advising all San Diego borrowers to lock all mortgage rates at application.  The risk of the Fed raising rates far exceeds the opportunity for lower term rates.  Watch this one minute video to understand what exactly has been happening in the mortgage markets, since May 2, 2008 and what I think WILL happen in the near term future.

Brian Brady
Mortgage Planner
858-777-9751

June 12, 2008

San Diego Mortgage Rates Report: June 12, 2008

San Diego mortgage rates are headed higher.  Lock all rates at application, regardless of closing date.

The trend is clear; the Fed believes it has done all it can to stave off the banking crises and is now focusing its efforts on inflation. This morning, retail sales were up and the dollar is strengthening.  If stagflation is the fear, the current strategy of targeting core inflation may be abandoned for the more radical Paul Volcker-style approach to tame inflation. 

While I believe the higher mortgage rate cycle will be shorter than the 80-s style interest rate hikes, it's clear to me that Bernanke is talking differently than he did in 2006 and 2007.  The effect?  We could see mortgage rates rise as much as 2% in the next two years.  I still believe that a five year ARM will offer the best solution because interest rates move in cycles; I think we'll see San Diego mortgage rates under 6% again in 2011.  Today?  The trend looks like we're headed higher.

What then, should be your strategy?

1- If you were thinking of refinancing your home loan, apply now. There will be little periods of weakness in rates this year and you should jump on any chance you have to get a 5/1 ARM under 6% or a 30 year fixed rate under 6.5%.

2- If you can't get the home loan you want today, get your documentation to me anyway. Secure an approval that is good for 90 days and wait for those periods of weakness to lock in the right rate.

3- If you were thinking of buying a home, mortgage rates are about as good as they'll get for the next two years.  Get pre-approved, contact your REALTOR and start looking.

Brian Brady

(858)-777-9751

brian(at) californialoanconnection (dot) com

For faster service, apply online, fax your most recent paystub, 2007 and 2006 W-2 form, and most recent bank statement to 858-605-4230, and call me immediately.

June 09, 2008

San Diego Mortgage Rates Report: Monday June 9, 2008

San Diego mortgage rates are behaving exactly as I expected they would when I reissued my lock recommendation on May 29, 2008.  What then for June, 2008 mortgage rates? 

Expect more volatility.  The Fed's in a weird spot.  The economy is tanking under the pressure of high gas prices and the real estate recession.  The tax rebates are mailed and that money's been spent.  Gasoline is at $4.00/gallon.  Food costs are spiraling from the dumb ethanol energy policy. Ben Bernanke doesn't know if he should be fighting inflation on Monday or preventing a depression on Tuesday.  His mixed signals are being perceived as a potential rate hike which has kept San Diego mortgage rates above 6% these past two weeks.

A thirty-year fixed rate loan is at 6.375% now.  The 5/1 ARM I loved so much at 5.375% has risen to 5.5%.  I'm not certain that we'll see those rates come down this month.  If you have a June or early July closing, lock your mortgage rate now.  I do, however see the weak economy outweighing the inflationary fear.  The Saudis are attempting to increase production which leads me to believe that they think the bull market in oil is over.  If you have a closing in July, or are considering a refinance, I think you can float your rate until mortgage rates drop below 6%. 

If you're thinking of refinancing, it makes complete sense to start the process now by applying for a home loan.  I expect credit guidelines to tighten throughout the summer.  While I think you can hold off on your mortgage rate lock, you should get the documentation in so that the loan can be underwritten in June.  Loan approvals are usually good for 60 days so you can lock and close when rates come back down.

In summary: Lock all loans closing within 30 days, float the rest.

PS:  This could change daily.  Market volatility is such that I could move to an "all float" recommendation if the reaction to the Saudis summit is positive.  If oil gets down below $120/barrel, The Fed won't worry so much about inflation.  As always, keep checking back or subscribe to my RSS feed.

June 02, 2008

Why I Love Countrywide

Countrywide isn't going under.  Bank of America's going to buy them.  They're a mess right now but they'll be here in 5- 6 months...and that's a good thing.  It's a good thing because I love Countrywide.

Say What, Brian Brady?  You hammered Countrywide, all of last year. You told people to short the stock, last April and were one of the first to call for a merger with B of A, last August.  You called Angelo Mozilo a genius!

Not true.  It wasn't the company I was hammering, it was their CEO, Angelo Mozilo.  I became frustrated with his greedy behavior, towards the end of last Summer.  I have always felt that they were the premier mortgage banking firm in the country.  They took normal people and made superstar performers out of them.  The Countrywide employees are truly heroes; they did everything in their power to get the job done.  They have a mission to put every credit worthy American into a home; a home with a Countrywide home loan.

I dig that about them.  I dig their passion, their commitment, and their drive.

Bank of America CEO, Ken Lewis, agrees with me:

"Secondly, we've been told consistently even by the regulators that people think they’re very good operators," Lewis said, referring to Countrywide. "They know what they are doing. Now, they blew it on the credit side, obviously, but that wasn’t the operators' problems. That was the orders they were given."

You see what Ken's saying between the lines?   Read that last line of his again.

"..the orders they were given."   The "operators" to whom he refers are the employees.  Countrywide employees were given a mandate to sell, approve, and fund risky mortgage products in an effort to unseat Wells Fargo as this nation's top originator.   They funded negative amortization loans with disregard for the ability to repay the loan.  They funded HELOCs with disregard for valuation.  They did it at the behest of their leader who was on a powe legacy trip.

A bunch of (hold your nose) BANKERS are buying them.  I don't have a low opinion of Bank of America; they cash my five three figure checks well.  They're not mortgage bankers, though.  Mortgage bankers think differently than bankers.  Mortgage bankers analyze risk; they don't hide from it. I held little hope for the future of Countrywide when the Charlotte beancounters took over...until now.

Ken Lewis may see the genius that lies within the Countrywide organization.  That genius is it's human capital.  Most Countrywide folks have stayed on, through the crap, and into the future.

I love ya, Countrywide.  You're a mess right now but I love ya.   I'm hoping for the best.




June 01, 2008

Can Option ARMs Be The Solution?

salesRemember the "sleazy Option ARM advertisements"?

They're back but with a whole new twist:

This is why I never did option arms.  This is part of the reason why we are in the housing mess we are in.  Yes, borrowers have to claim responsibility, but every Bank that pushed neg am as a financing alternative deserves the billions in write downs and losses in stock options that they are mired in.  I have no sympathy for them...only contempt!

Oh, brother!  If I see one more loan hack Monday morning quarterbacking this mess I'm gonna puke.  There is nothing wrong with negative amortization loans; there was something drastically wrong with the way they were prescribed. The "new neg-am" advertisements are "posited indignation" and they're just as sleazy as the original advertisements.  They prey upon the opposite of the greed motivation; fear. 

Let me try to break down the negative amortization loan for you:

  • There is an interest rate charged; it may be adjustable monthly, annually, or for a specified period.
  • There are payment options.  One option is LESS than the interest assessed for the month.  Borrowers have the "option" to pay the minimum amount or a higher payment.
  • The difference between the lower amount paid and the higher amount assessed is added to the loan balance.  The loan balance rises or amortizes "negatively".
  • If that balance rises to a pre-determined amount (usually 110% to 125% of the original balance), all bets are off; the loan becomes a fully-amortizing loan and the payment goes up...a lot.

Neither the neg-am loans nor the banks caused the housing mess; a supply and demand imbalance, combined with an adolescent nature towards understanding complicated loan products did.  I'm gonna help you out with this.  Neg-am loans are neither good nor evil; they're just financial instruments.  When prescribed properly, they can be a super-charged problem solver or liquidity builder BUT...you gotta do your homework, first.

When does a negative amortization loan make sense for you?

How about when you're looking to buy in a soon to recover market?  NAR Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun believes that a V-shaped spike is due in three markets:sales

Middle-America cities that performed evenly over the past few years – like Cincinnati, Milwaukee and the Kansas City, Mo., area – are likely to experience home price gains in the 20 to 30 percent range over the next five years, while markets like Miami, Las Vegas and Phoenix could see prices go up as much as 50 percent during that time period, Yun said.

If you're looking to buy a $300,000 home, with $150,000 down payment, in Las Vegas, you might consider buying a rental property in Phoenix, for $150,000, as well (geographically diversify). Spread the $150,000 over both homes and use a negative amortization loan to keep your payments affordable, for the recovery period.  You might sell the Phoenix rental for $225,000, in 2013, and use the extra $50,000 to pay down the Vegas loan under $100,000, in 2013.  That's what wealthy people do.  They buy low and sell high with other people's money.

If you're saddled with debt and no lender is going to let you refinance with "cash-out", you might need a negative amortization loan.  Let's assume you're paying $2,200/month on your $300,000 fixed rate loan and $800/month in $40,000 in consumer debt (credit cards).  In 3 years, your mortgage balance will drop to $290,000 and your credit card balance will drop to $27,000.  If you took out a neg-am loan, with a $1,400 payment, and applied the $800 cash-flow savings to your credit cards, you'll pay OFF your credit card debt in 3 years.  You will have INCREASED your mortgage balance some $15,000 but you'll be swapping 14% debt for 6.5% debt.

noneIn the existing scenario, you'll owe an aggregate of $317,000 in 2011. With the neg-am loan, you'll owe an aggregate of $315,000 (on your mortgage) but your high-interest consumer debt will have been retired. Your credit score will most likely have risen, making your eligible for a MUCH better loan program.  Oh, you'll save a bunch of money on taxes, as well.

Finally, maybe you have no liquidity .  That's VERY dangerous !  Investing that $800 monthly difference can grow to a $35,000 nest-egg (assuming a 7% return). While the difference in mortgage balances will be $25,000 higher, with the neg-am loan, the investment account will have grown to $35,000; you'll be ahead some $10,000 and have what we call in financial planning circles, liquidity.

Oh...by the way...liquidity=safety.  When the dung hits the blades, cash in the bank is king !

Here's the advice for today; don't be swayed by the fear mongers of today; you weren't swayed by the greed merchants of yesteryear.  Do your homework, perform your due diligence, and call a mortgage adviser who has financial planning background.  He'll analyze ALL of your assets and liabilities, and tailor a loan solution specifically for your situation.

After all, aren't you special enough to warrant personal attention?