Mortgage Rates Report

"It's deja-vu all over again," said Yogi Berra.

Yogi was referring to the multiple World Series rings he collected as a Yankee. For me, deja-vu is the grassroots campaign to kick-off the next BloodhoundBlog Unchained Social Media Marketing Conference, on November 7, 2008, in Orlando, FL.

Like Yogi, I take particular delight in this challenge. Unchained Phoenix was our first World Series victory. Many Unchained graduates tell us it was a four-game sweep.   Our challenge now is to RETAIN the championship.   The road to victory starts tonight.

What might you expect from the BloodhoundBlog Unchained Social Media Marketing Conference in Orlando?   Ask our newly commissioned guerrillas, on the front lines, if  what they learned in Phoenix is working.

Here's Christine Beaur-Mortezaie's take:

For the last couple of months I've enjoyed being a BloodHoundBlog spectator. Just keeping up with these prolific and interesting writers is a job, rewarding, but quite a job. I still can't figure out how to carve out time for web 2.o.   I have been way too busy harnessing time for deals  that are generating income now but BHB and all its talented contributors have brought a breath of fresh air to my stale world.

 

I've been in real estate for 5 years and no one, except for Laurie Manny, whom I had the good fortune to meet recently in the Long Beach office, has ever challenged me to think beyond the tip of my nose. So break the mold! What a far-fetched idea! The modus operandi had been "Do as I have ALWAYS done and YOU TOO will be successful" and YOU TOO will be at the same place... chained in 20 years...

 

I had to attend BHB Unchained in Phoenix. Lucky me! At Unchained was the most phenomenal group of people, with such diverse personalities, talents and experiences. What made the conference so fabulous, beyond the presentations, was the continual sharing and exchange between presenters and attendees, table partners and neighbors, lunch companions and the water cooler cohorts. There was no right or wrong, just opinions - sometimes strong, and opportunities to share and learn. Quite different from what I had experienced in my real estate world.  BHB Unchained opened the gate, my gate to sanity.

So be sane. Don't miss out on the next BHB Unchained session. You owe it to yourself to learn and know what's beyond the gate. Don't settle for the status quo. Go and Unchain your mind and your business.

 

Yes, Go to Unchained! In Orlando or in Pascagoula (I always loved that name) or in Petaouchnoc (the french version of every/any town). Walk to Orlando if you have to.

 

P.S. It looks like getting a new place in Orlando might be a challenge. The Heard Museum in Phoenix might have had some issues, but what a wonderful venue. I could have spent many more hours and evenings in BHB Unchained sessions, but what a great opportunity it was to walk to the other side of the building and visit this treasure of a museum every night after the sessions. This was an unanticipated treat. Thank you Greg and Brian.

 

Thank you, Christine for attending and, more importantly, practicing what you've learned by being found everywhere. Our mission will be complete when we drive the bums out of the business.  Christine is doing that on the Western Front.

Nestled in the foothills of Northeast San Diego County resides another Unchained operative, Don Reedy. Faced with the challenge of affordability problems, Don came up with a solution designed to Keep Our Kids in California. He sets traps in every backyard, in San Diego.

Check out this report from the desert battleground of Phoenix, AZ, by Patrick Mahony:

I wanted to let you know how the blog I won at Unchained is working out.

 

For starters, you would think I am a paying "big shot" with RSS pieces, the service, and training (webinar) offered by them, and 1 park place has been incredible. It is like I have a personal consultant.

 

Honestly, I feel bad not paying for the service, however I sure feel better, not having to pay. Mary McKnight is a real straight shooter. After I won the blog, I received a phone call from Mary telling me what I needed to provide to get the blog going.

 

The first thing Mary said to me was that I needed a Domain name.

 

I said, I have this great domain name....... AZRE.TV!!!!!

 

She replied....yep.... you need a domain name...I was a little heart broken to give up AZRE.TV, however this was one of those rare times I decided to listen to someone who knows more than I do.

 

So.... www.PhoenixRealEstatePrices.com, was born. (AZRE.TV lives on inside the blog as a complementary video piece.). After about thirty days I feel that I am settling in on the format I want, PhoenixRealEstatePrices.com, text, AZRE.TV video. I have made it to the second page of google for several terms.

 

Learning the back end of what works and doesn't work is just plain fun, I am amazed that within minutes I can find out, how people find me. Combining all of this with Brian Brady's "Way of the Hunter" is definitely beginning to grow, it seems like someone new finds me everyday, which is pretty cool.

 

I hope all is well with you....... you sure look busy.

 

Busy? Busy is what Patrick will be in about 2-3 months. He won a Mach2 website platform, complete with afterburners. He learned how to fly that machine at Unchained Phoenix. Expect him to report "Mission Accomplished"...again, and again, and again.

Vance Shutes decided to dominate the keyword search "Saline Michigan Real Estate" after hearing Laurie Manny and Mary McKnight lay out that battle plan.  What Patrick will win in the air, Vance will win in an  infantry assault.

What would an Independence Day offer be without a reference to New England? Boston Kayak Guy, John Prescott decided to get into the fight and is dominating lifestyle niches.  Watch John Prescott covertly slip behind the lines and win the flag.

Unchained operatives don't talk, they implement. That's the difference between the BloodhoudBlog Unchained Social Media Marketing Conferences and beer drinkin' blogging beauty contests. The advice we give is as practical as nails on a construction site and as simple to use as well. But...you gotta know how to hammer straight - we'll teach you how to do that.   November 7, 2008 promises to be an action-packed day filled with sound strategy and actionable tactics to win your war.

I was criticized for not releasing a list of speakers for Unchained Phoenix, and I suspect the naysayers will chime in if I neglect that detail, here. Here's the preliminary speaker schedule for Unchained Orlando:

Professor Greg Swann will talk about the Unchained philosophy and explain how to build content on the internet that keeps customers coming back. He employs tactics that Dan Kennedy describes as "building a fence around your herd." Simply put, the content you offer needs to be so compelling that potential customers can't get enough of what you provide; they keep coming back. Internet gurus call this the "stickiness factor" .  Professor Greg is stickier than a four year old in a chocolate factory.

Speaking of herds, I'll talk about how you can find that herd. It's pretty simple if you think about it. At Unchained Phoenix, we described it as "setting traps" but now I realize it's so much more than that. It's about building a "platform", like a political candidate does and actively finding like-minded people with whom you want to connect. It integrates online connections with offline meetings and puts you in front of hundreds of people each year. It's about building a business with people whom YOU enjoy as opposed to the servile practice of "panhandling for business."

No revolution is complete without a graceful lady and Lady Teri Lussier fits that description to a tee. Teri details her journey from internet "newbie" to hyper-local blogging instructor.  She'll share the mistakes she's made and the victories she's celebrated. She has an uncanny knack for determining the utility of the next shiny object offered on the internet.  Teri will teach you how she uses the principles of hunter and farmer in her real estate practice.

Mitch Ribak has agreed to discuss his pay per click campaigns and how his team of 16 agents has closed 173 transactions, YTD, from his marketing efforts, in a horrible market. With Mitch, the contact is more important than the content. Some will love it, some won't, but without reservation, Mitch Ribak is extremely effective in his online marketing efforts.  The scoreboard demonstrates that.  (Mitch is on track to have Russell Shaw-like results, this year)

That's who we've CONFIRMED but there will be so much more. Countless vendors have e-mailed me with their hands in the air.   We've been awfully critical of folks who want to take your money without demonstrable results; none of them will slip through our screening process.   You can get all the hustle you want across the street but at Unchained Orlando, if vendors aren't effective with their service offering, they're in the parking lot (or in the audience, trying to figure out how the war will be won).

You still here?

Congratulations, you qualify for the "Special Independence Day Offer". I think Independence Day is an appropriate holiday for this offer.  Lemme tell you why.

Unchained is a way of life. It's about being free from the shackles the real estate industry has used in the past. It's freedom to thrive and freedom to fail. It's your Declaration of Independence and your acceptance of failure or success. It starts today...right here.

This is what's called in long-copy advertising as "the offer." Its where you build the value of your offering and deliver it for a fair price. This is where you "sell" your offering and sell I will. I detest "hard sell" tactics but I love selling hard. If you don't know the difference between the two, you're probably lost so click away and criticize us now. I love campy ads so you'll see some pretty funny stuff from me, promoting this "Special Independence Day Offer", all weekend long. I offer this as a celebration of creative marketing. I hope to tickle your funny bone and to get you to think about how your 99 bucks will be a valuable investment.

Remember, I've only confirmed four speakers to date.  Each speaker individually is worth a minimum of $1,000.  We think that the price of a tank of gas is a small investment for Unchained Orlando. The commitment you make this weekend will be half of our scheduled conference fee of $199. Why am I offering this event for under one hundred bucks? To reward the vigilant. Starting at midnight tonight (PDT) and continuing until 11:59PM (PDT), Monday July 7, 2008, you can proclaim your independence and reserve your spot at Unchained Orlando.

Follow the way of the 56 who signed and arrest the tyranny of the bosses.

Declare your independence... NOW!

PS: If I were in your shoes, I could think of a few reasons NOT to commit my funds today. The most glaring is the fact that we haven't confirmed a conference venue. We went through this problem with Unchained Phoenix, as well.  I offer two things to protect the value of your investment: (1) We pulled off Unchained Phoenix- we have street cred. (2) We maintain our money back guarantee - All of your money refunded before, during, or after the conference, no questions asked.  Ask Todd Carpenter about our credibility with that offer.

PPS: If you raise your hand this weekend, I'll include you in our affiliate program.  You can earn the Unchained Phoenix DVDs, the conference fee, hotel, and airfare for telling your colleagues about this $99 discount.   I have NO DOUBT that we'll be criticized for offering this conference through an affilate program.  If you're one of those BLOGGERS,...direct the heat towards ME.  Greg picks on affiliate programs and I think we can charge a helluva lot more than two hundred bucks. Good partners compromise when the reasons are sound so we both recognized the value in our respective pleas. I think you will, as well.

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Scripps Ranch REALTOR Kris Berg gives us the single best explanation of Mello-Roos fees I've seen:

In 1982, the Community Facilities District Act was approved by the State Legislature. The bills coauthors were Senator Henry Mello and Assemblyman Mike Roos -- Get it? The impetus for the bill was our famous Proposition 13 which was enacted in 1979 and severly limited the amount of property tax revenues which our local governments had previously enjoyed. With tax revenues limited, revenues which could be earmarked for public improvement projects and new infrastructure, a new source of funds was needed.

Spend five minutes reading Kris' conversational tutorial, at San Diego Home Blog,  and you'll never wonder what Mello-Roos fees are again.

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I know, I know... I'm shooting myself in the foot.  I'll start this essay with the conclusion; if you think prices are going to drop even farther, don't buy a home in San Diego...unless...

Let me explain.  Dean Calbraith wrote an article, in the Union Trib, about mortgage rates' affect on the affordability index in San Diego.  It was the standard industry hype from some local economists and mortgage professionals:

"The day of low interest rates is over," said Dan Seiver, an economist at San Diego State University. "Because of inflation, we'll be having interest-rate rises across the board. But having rising mortgage rates in the current real estate environment is like pouring water on a drowning man."

Eh...maybe, Dan.  You'd be surprised at the resilency of a real estate market to higher rates.  Higher inflation could also lead to higher wages, which throws the affordabilty index out the window.  Purchase prices are permanent while loans are temporary; they can always be refinanced to a lower rate during the next economic cycle.

Oh, yeah.  I almost forgot.  I've been yelling about the affordability index since last Thanksgiving and higher rates since May 2, 2008.  Panic, if you're buying a home in July- lock your rate at application.  Don't fret too much about an economic cycle, though.

Gary London, who heads The London Group Realty Advisors in San Diego, said, "It's inevitable that interest rates will rise, which will only slow what's increasingly becoming a festering situation with real estate."

Many local real estate experts say prices will decline at least through the end of this year and probably through much of 2009. The main reason for that drop is that we're only halfway through the wave of foreclosures emanating from the bursting of the housing bubble.

Maybe, Gary.  If prices plummet more than they have, as you predict, a 4% 30 year fixed rate won't get people off the fence.

Would-be home buyers face a challenge: Do you wait to buy your home until the market hits absolute rock bottom by which time interest rates may be zooming skyward? Or do you buy a home now at interest rates that are relatively cheap, and then watch the selling price of your home erode over the next year or year and a half?

That really is impossible to say.  Timing the bottom is never a good strategy for a long-term investor.  Buying a property you can afford is.  In some areas of San Diego County, prices are at their 2002 levels; a bargain indeed.  In some of the worst affected areas, prices may ALREADY have bottomed as investors step up and buy.

"The rising rates make things a lot more complicated," said T.J. Knowles, a mortgage broker with CalBrokers in Del Mar. "If you wait too long for the price to drop before buying a house while the interest rate is rising, over the long term you could cost yourself a ton of money."

Or not, TJ.    Again, prices are permanent, mortgage loans are temporary.

Call me to run the numbers.  You may very well buy a home for $400,000 today  that drops in price to $368,000, in 2009.  It may also rise to $410,000 at the end of next year.  They key component is your expected hold time.  If it's 7-10 years, you're probably going to make money, regardless of how close you come to the bottom.

Oh, now back to my conclusion:  Don't buy a home today if you think prices are going to continue to drop...unless...

they've dropped as far as they will already.

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Benjamin Bach is Canada's "Wealth Planning Guy" and a Sales Representative with The Wealth Team at Keller Williams Golden Triangle Realty.  His website is http://www.kitchener-waterloo-real-estate-investments.com/.  Benjamin responded to my prediction that the Canadian mortgage and housing markets were ready to crash.  Rather than bury the comment in the old article, I asked him to write it as a guest author.   Here it is:

"Real Estate is all LOCAL"

Parts of Canada's RE market have appreciated at *very quick* rates in the past few years. Certain parts of Alberta have seen huge rises in prices, and I was amongst those that thought the run up in prices was not sustainable.

Other areas have been very flat for the last while. There are cities where a duplex has been $80,000 for the last 10 years, and probably will be for the next 10 as well.

Toronto, the economic centre of the country, continues to sustain prices that, to me, seem high. Condo's for 500K are the same size as what I buy 1hr away for $170K. BUT - ~80,000 people are moving to Toronto a year (that stat was current as of a couple of years ago), and they need to move somewhere. I don't think Toronto's prices will continue to go up as much as they have in recent years, but I don't see them going down. The high end of Toronto's condo market, specifically new non-Name Brand condo's over $1mil (i.e. NOT Ritz, Trump etc), feels a little more inflated by speculation to me.

That brings me to my little gem, Kitchener Waterloo. Our economy continues to grow, unemployment and vacancy (2% !) keep going down, and we have one of the youngest and highest paid workforces in Canada.

The manufacturing sector has been hurt by the currency exchange, but is still profitable. Old plants close down, but Toyota (among others) opens new ones. Old plants - 1 million sq ft last year - get sold or leased, absorbed back into the market.

There are three major post secondary institutions in Kitchener Waterloo, with a medical school almost completed.

We were recently voted the world's most intelligent community

We are the heart of Canada's Hi Tech sector (the Blackberry everyone loves is made in Waterloo, 5 minutes from my office)

We have a very strong FIRE sector.

A VERY diverse economic base.

When I spoke with Benjamin Tal last month, a head Real Estate analyst in Canada, he singled out Kitchener Waterloo as the bright spot for Real Estate investors in Ontario. I agree, and my clients do too - voting with their wallets.

Clients from Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, Calgary, New York, California and recently even Kuwait are attracted to our low prices and great economy. Condos from 130Ks (they're nice - we own a couple), newer single detahced homes in *nice* areas from the $230,000s - and we're less than 1 hour away from Toronto, and Pearson International Airport.

Just like in the US, there are some areas where, to me, prices feel high. But Canadians as a whole have not embraced the sub prime lending that the US has seen in recent years, and *most* canadians aren't buying huge homes they can't afford, without equity. Clearly, there are always some who do, and independant of the economy, they'll get burned, almost every single time.

Investors in Canada should be looking to areas where they can get a great, reliable, steady return on their investment - Kitchener Waterloo fits the bill in every regard, and you don't need to plunk 35% down like most of us Canucks would have to when buying stateside.

Information is believed to be accurate but is not warranted

Thanks for the contribution, Benjamin!  Your perspective is helpful.

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